WELCOME TO OPINIONS BASED ON FACTS (OBOF)
Name
|
Published
|
OVERVIEW
|
Dec. 28, 2010
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 1
|
Dec. 30, 2010
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 2
|
Jan. 10, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 3
|
Jan. 17, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 4
|
Jan. 24, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 5
|
Jan. 31, 2011
|
!!SOCIAL SECURITY PART 6
|
Feb. 07, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 7
|
Feb. 14, 2011
|
SPECIAL ISSUE
|
Feb. 18, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 8
|
Feb. 21, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 9
|
Mar. 01, 2011
|
SOCIAL SECURITY PART 10
|
Mar. 07, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 1
|
Mar. 14, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 1A
|
Mar. 21, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 2
|
Mar. 25, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 3
|
Mar. 29, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 4
|
Apr. 04, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 5
|
Apr. 11, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 6
|
Apr. 18, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 7
|
Apr. 25, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 7A
|
Apr. 29, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 8
|
May 02, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 9
|
May 09, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 10
|
May 16, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 11
|
May 24, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 12
|
Jun. 06, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 13
|
Jun. 20, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 14
|
JULY 05,2011
|
SS & MORE PART 14A
|
JULY 18, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 15
|
JULY 19, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 16
|
AUG. 03, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 17
|
AUG. 15, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 18
|
Aug. 29, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 19
|
Sept. 12, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 20
|
Sept. 26, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 21
|
Oct. 10, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 22
|
Oct. 24, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 22 EXTRA
|
Nov. 04, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 23
|
Nov. 07, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 24
|
Nov. 21, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 25
|
Dec. 05, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 26
|
DEC. 19, 2011
|
SS & MORE PART 27
|
JAN. 03, 2012
|
SS & MORE PART 27A
|
JAN. 05, 2012
|
SS & MORE PART 28
|
JAN. 17, 2012
|
SS & MORE PART 29
|
JAN. 31, 2012
|
IN THIS ISSUE
1. Beginning thoughts.
2. The problems of our country.
3. "THE FAB GROUP."
4. Insider trading investigation.
5. A courageous family.
6. Morgage settlement w/banks.
7. The mortgage settlement missing piece.
8. Bank settlement $25 B - $675 B to go.
9. Sen. Sanders - Stop corporate takeover.
10. VP Biden - Bin Laden Raid.
11. Job Growth.
12. Job deficit more important that budget deficit.
13. Parting thought.
~~~
"VOTE AN EDUCATED VOTE"
What is an educated vote? It is one that has been made with as much knowledge, based on facts, not misinformation, that an individual can obtain.
~~~
BEGINNING THOUGHTS
ADDING TO THE SCHEDULE
I want to tell you about an incredible man. He was born in the poorest of the poor. Despite unbelievable odds in his early years, he managed to get through early school years and went on to obtain a Ph. D. in economics. It just isn't possible to imagine the obstacles he faced and conquered to get to that point.
He was a Professor of Economics Emeritus, Eastern Illinois University . After retiring, he spent 11 years trying to educate the public about the great Social Security fraud by Congresses stealing $2.6 trillion from the SS Trust Fund. He has written 7 books on both Social Security and Economics.
Also, for the past 17 years he has been writing weekly essays "Contemplating Life," that are published in five small newspapers in Arizona, Florida, Tennessee, Illinois, and Virginia. He has compiled 77 of these essays into a book and it is from these 77 that I am going to post some of the essays.
The reason for telling you this is, that the Tuesday between the Tuesdays that I post the "Opinions Based On Facts," I am going to post one of the essays from the book, "Contemplating Life."
The man that I have been talking about is Dr. Allen W. Smith Ph. D. and I have the greatest respect and admiration for him. I have found these essays to be very enlightening and comforting. I hope you will also.
THE PROBLEMS OF OUR COUNTRY
Of course, all of you know that our country has many problems. You also, know, that there are a number of opinions as to what ones are paramount. I suppose that depends on your individual concerns at a given time. I happen to think that the two most urgent and damaging, are the Banks and our Financial System, and Congress.
We all really know what to do about congress, vote for change. Of course, from my point of view, that means voting Democrat. We simply have to keep the White House and gain back the House of Representative and bring about a filibuster proof Senate.
What to do about the Big Banks and our Financial System is another can of worms altogether. Following "THE FAB GROUP" there are some articles on this subject that I sincerely hope you will take the time to, not only read, but really think about them.
Folks, this is the area that can truly bring down our democracy. We all need to learn as much as we can about the operation of Big Banks and our Financial System. Then we need to make our voices heard about, not only having the appropriate regulations in place, but a system that will ENFORCE those regulations.
THIS IS WHERE OUR DOWNFALL COULD
TAKE PLACE
. BE SURE TO READ THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES. THANK YOU SO MUCH.
~~~
"THE FAB GROUP"
What is "THE FAB GROUP?" Very simply, it is a group of short news items that provide more varied amounts of news, which I think we all will be interested in, without long detailed commentary. More news - less reading.
Why "FAB?" My name is Floyd Austin Bowman - (FAB), and these are a goup of items that I have chosen, thus "THE FAB GROUP," pronounced "FAB."
At this time, it is my plan to open each posting with "THE FAB GROUP," followed with two or three full articles, ending with the "PARTING THOUGHT." This could vary from time to time, depending on what develops, but we'll try this and see if it can make the postings more interesting and informing for you.
House Financial Services Committee chairman under investigation over possible violations of insider-trading laws.
Office of Congressional Ethics opened the probe late last year after focusing on numerous suspicious trades on Rep. Spencer Bachus’s (R-Ala.) annual financial disclosure form.
The congressman, who oversees the nation’s banking and financial services industries, said in a statement, "I welcome this opportunity to present the facts and set the record straight."
The congressman, who oversees the nation’s banking and financial services industries, said in a statement, "I welcome this opportunity to present the facts and set the record straight."
~~~
TAXPAYER - FUNDED FREDDIE MAC CAUGHT BETTING BILLIONS AGAINST STRUGGLING AMERICA HOMEOWNERS
As homeowners across the nation struggle to keep up with mortgage payments—and in the worse cases face foreclosure—a new investigation reveals that taxpayer-owned mortgage giant, Freddie Mac, made multi-billion-dollar investments that profited if borrowers stayed stuck in high-interest mortgages. Freddie Mac began increasing these investments dramatically in late 2010, at the same time it was making it harder for homeowners to get out of such mortgages.
Several U.S. lawmakers and prominent economists are now calling for Congress and the White House to end this financial conflict of interest. This comes just one week after President Obama promised "no more red tape" for homeowners looking to refinance.
~~~
A courageous family is taking on the big banks to save their home
Arturo de los Santos is a 46-year-old former Marine who lives with his wife and four children in Riverside , CA . For almost a decade, Arturo and his family have lived in their three-bedroom house next door to their kids' elementary school, a dream made possible by Arturo's job as a supervisor in a Santa Ana metal factory, where he has worked for over 21 years.
But in 2008, as a result of the economic crash, business at Arturo's factory plummeted and Arturo's hours were sharply reduced. Like millions of Americans, Arturo's reduced income made it difficult for him to make monthly payments, forcing him to apply for a modification to his loan, which is owned by Freddie Mac and serviced by giant Wall Street bank JP Morgan Chase.
The bank gave Arturo the runaround in a cruel way. In order to get the loan modification, he was instructed to deliberately fall behind on his payments. Then, because he had followed these instructions, Chase foreclosed Arturo's home and last year evicted his family -- even after Arturo notified the bank that his income had recovered and that he was able to make the original payments. By this point, Arturo had applied three times -- and been rejected three times -- for a loan modification that he qualified for.
After watching their house sit vacant for months with no buyers, Arturo and his family decided to move back into their home in December and enroll their children back into their school. Their situation is dicey -- they could be re-evicted at any moment.
~~~
MORTGAGE SETTLEMENT WITH BANKS
THE FOLLOWING SHOULD BE OF SOME HELP FOR ARTURO DE LOS SANTOS . IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF IT DOES.
Report provided by Brady Dennis and Sari Horwitz:
State and federal officials on Thursday announced a settlement of $26 billion with five of the nation’s banks over flawed and fraudulent foreclosure practices that affected several million homeowners and became commonplace after the housing boom turned to bust in recent years. It is the largest government-industry settlement in more than a decade. The deal marks the culmination of more than 16 months of negotiation between lenders and a collection of state and federal officials.
It aims to help troubled borrowers by requiring the banks to reduce the amount borrowers owe on their mortgages, lowering their interest rates and paying restitution to homeowners who suffered mortgage-related abuses. It will force lenders to revamp how they interact with struggling mortgage holders and bar them from trying to foreclose on borrowers while simultaneously negotiating mortgage modifications."
THE END OF "THE FAB GROUP."
~~~
The Mortgage Settlement's Missing Piece: Will Banks Now Follow The Law?
Fri, 02/10/2012 — Bruce Judson
The following is from the report referred to above, in part.
The country's banks agreed to change their behavior as part of the robo-mortgage settlement announced earlier this week. The announcement, however, leaves open a central question: Does the settlement include new, pre-defined penalties for banks that fail to uphold their new promises? Since a change in bank behavior is a vital piece of the settlement, the absence of an answer is highly disconcerting.
The Justice Department release said, "Compliance with the agreement will be overseen by an independent monitor, Joseph A. Smith Jr. Smith has served as the North Carolina Commissioner of Banks since 2000. The monitor will oversee implementation of the servicing standards required by the agreement; impose penalties of up to $1 million per violation (or up to $5 million for certain repeat violations); and publish regular public reports that identify any quarter in which a servicer fell short of the standards imposed in the settlement."
There appears to be near universal agreement that this settlement will do little for homeowners who have been the victims of past bad bank behavior. But there may be real value in the deal if it successfully changes bank behavior going forward.
The stakes here are enormous. They extend beyond the housing market to the nature of American society itself. The banks’ blatant malfeasance with regard to the robo-mortgage scandal and other foreclosure-related activities has been a clear example of unequal justice. The banks have knowingly and repeatedly violated laws (such as providing tens of thousands of false affidavits to the courts) that would have landed an ordinary citizen in jail.
At the same time, successful capitalism itself depends on the enforcement of rules and contracts in a fair bargain that all participants believe will be enforced by the courts. When powerful players are permitted to alter established rules at will, capitalism ultimately collapses. Contracts and the idea of a fair bargain become meaningless as less powerful parties to an agreement know their rights will not be enforced. Over time, citizens lose faith in government and their own ability to thrive in what becomes a corrupt economy.
~~~
Bank Settlement: $25 Billion Down, $675 Billion to Go
By Van Jones February 10, 2012
“The actual total cash paid out by the banks is only $5 billion dollars, to be split among the nation's largest banks — hardly a stiff penalty considering that the six largest banks in the U.S. paid $144 billion in bonuses last year.”
This week a $25 billion settlement was announced in which big banks pay up for a portion of their bad deeds in the home foreclosure crisis. Everyone is trying to determine whether this is a good deal or a bad deal.
Here is how I score it. This deal represents small progress on a small problem. Now it's time to make big progress on the big problem.
Don't count on finding many good points in the deal itself, because there aren't a lot. In fact, the main win can be found in what's NOT in the deal.
A truly horrible deal would have let the banks write a small check and then seal the door on all further investigations and pursuits of accountability. This deal does NOT do that. Because this settlement limits legal immunity for banks, this deal does not automatically let the banks off the hook for all of their wrong-doing.
Except for a few issues like robo-signing, state attorneys general can still fight for more compensation and relief for the banks' victims. Government officials can proceed with investigating and prosecuting banks for their role in crashing the economy and the housing market. In other words, the door is still open to solve the much bigger problems we face. Our fight for justice can, and will, continue.
That is small comfort, perhaps, but it was hard won. So we should honor the hard work of New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, California Attorney General Kamala Harris and others, including many grassroots progressive organizations like New Bottom Line. . They fought courageously to prevent a total sweetheart deal for the banks. This outcome is the result of determined activism, and without this heroic effort, the deal would have been drastically worse.
That said, there is a reason why many progressives and housing advocates are furious, and why many struggling homeowners are left wondering, "How does this help me?"
Millions of homeowners and families are still suffering under the tremendous weight of a debt blanket that is smothering the economy.
This $25 billion settlement helps only a fraction of those homeowners and addresses only a very limited set of fraudulent behaviors. A number of homeowners will get some cash payments, but the amounts are negligible compared to the pain and injustice they have experienced. The actual total cash paid out by the banks is only $5 billion dollars, to be split among the nation's largest banks -- hardly a stiff penalty considering that the six largest banks in the U.S. paid $144 billion in bonuses last year. And enforcement mechanisms remain murky.
We must not forget the more than 14 million homeowners (one in five) whose homes are underwater, beneath a crushing total $700 billion in negative equity. We must not forget the more than 4 million families who have lost their homes. We must not forget the millions of families who are in some form of foreclosure proceedings on this very day.
These are the Americans who have suffered and continue to suffer. They are worried today, like yesterday, whether they will still have a home to live in tomorrow. They are the ones who must choose every month whether to pay bills or to feed their children.
Here are three things that must happen next:
1) The U.S. Department of Justice and state attorneys general must investigate and prosecute banks more aggressively than ever, at a much larger scale than anything that has happened to date.
2) We must force banks to make massive principal reduction of hundreds of billions of dollars, to immediately relieve the 14 million homeowners in the country who have underwater mortgages.
3) We must change laws and regulations to prevent this kind of crisis and fraud from ever happening again.
Two weeks ago, I called for hundreds of billions in principal reduction for homeowners. This would free up Americans to start new businesses, spend money on worthwhile products and services, and invest in their children's futures. We still need to address the $700 billion in negative equity, which in turn is only part of the nearly seven trillion dollars in total lost equity created by the banks' irresponsible, and in some cases, illegal practices.
We need a solution at the scale of the problem, so that families can get back on their feet, the economy can get working, and people can reach for their American dreams again instead of watching them drown.
That is why I say: $25 billion down, $675 billion to go.
~~~
Why is the Occupy movement focused on bank deregulation?
"Fusing banking with inherently risky speculative activity is, in my judgment, unwise. We will, in ten years time, look back and say we should not have done that." Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota was one of few opponents of the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act—a 1933 act that separated investment and commercial banking with the aim of preventing another Great Depression.
Nine years after Dorgan's comment, the American economy entered a crisis. Soon, though, corporate profits bounced back to their pre-crisis levels—but the wages of ordinary Americans still haven't. That split helped birth the Occupy movement, calling out the failure of an economic system that benefits a small minority at the expense of everyone else.
When FDR gained office he called for an inquiry into the causes of the great depression and remedies of it. He called together most of the great economic minds of the day and many unknown economists. According to J.K.Galbraith, the future economic councillor to the government and Keynesian truthsayer, there developed mainly two different schools of thought as to a remedy for the depression.
One was for the development of a command economy and the ending of the banks powers through fractional reserve banking and their private monopoly to create our money supply through the Federal Reserve system.
The other was the regulation of the banking and financial sector by Glass Steagall. FDR, a 1%'er, went with the Glass plan as quickly as possible to save the banking interests. Glass was a wholly owned subsidary of the financial elites and had worker extensively to bring in the bankers coup d'grace, the Federal Reserve system.
While the new act worked as to it's intentions, it did nothing to curb the ultimate power of control, over every aspect of the nation's life, by the bankers monopoly ownership of the nation's money and credit supply. The result of this was the inevitable removal of Glass Steagall by the bankers as their power and influence grew with the resulting bubbles and malfeasence leading to todays great recession.
That avarice and insatiable greed has always lead bankers and financialists to self destruct, taking all with them, seems a lesson that is never learned by anyone. If we are ever to be free from their grasping gluttony and unfailing economic destructiveness we must learn the lesson and institute law so that we remember the lesson. That lesson is that the power to create money and credit must lay in the people's hands and not in the hands of private for profit bankers. The bankers, with a flick of the pen always bail themselves out and leave recession/depressions in their wake.
Here's a quote from a Sir Josiah Stamp, director of the Bank of England in the 1920's; (equivalent to Bernake and the Federal Reserve)
"Banking was concieved in iniquity and born in sin... Bankers own the earth... Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the FLICK of a pen, they will create enough money to put it back again. Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes, like mine, will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to be the slaves of bankers and pay the costs of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit."
Google "The Money Masters" and watch the video to see how the banking system works to wreck any and all nations through debt. The guys doing this documentary also predicted the exact current financial mess back in 1996, saying that any time after 2005 to expect a financial meltdown with evictions and foreclousures hitting middle Americans.
~~~
SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS:
"WE MUST STOP THIS CORPORATE TAKEOVER OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY."
The corporate barbarians are through the gate of American democracy. Not satisfied with their all-pervasive influence on our culture, economy and legislative processes, they want more. They want it all.
Two years ago, the United States supreme court betrayed our Constitution and those who fought to ensure that its protections are enjoyed equally by all persons regardless of religion, race or gender by engaging in an unabashed power-grab on behalf of corporate America .
In its now infamous decision in the Citizens United case, five justices declared that corporations must be treated as if they are actual people, under the Constitution, when it comes to spending money to influence our elections. This allows them, for the first time, to draw on the corporate checkbook - in any amount and at any time - to run ads, explicitly, for or against specific candidates.
What's next ... a corporate right to vote?
Don't laugh. Just this month, the Republican National Committee filed an amicus brief in a US appeals court contending that the natural extension of the Citizens United rationale is that the century-old ban on corporate contributions directly to candidates and political parties is similarly unconstitutional.
They want corporations to be able to sponsor candidates and parties directly while claiming with a straight face this would not result in any sort of corruption. And while, this month, they take no issue with corporations being subject to the existing contribution limits, anyone paying attention knows that eliminating such caps will be corporate America's next prize in its brazen ambition for absolute control over our elections.
The US Constitution has served us very well, but when the supreme court says, for purposes of the first amendment, that corporations are people, that writing checks from the company's bank account is constitutionally-protected speech and that attempts by the federal government and states to impose reasonable restrictions on campaign ads are unconstitutional, our democracy is in grave danger.
I am a proud sponsor of a number of bills that would respond to Citizens United and begin to get a handle on the problem. But something more needs to be done - something more fundamental and indisputable, something that cannot be turned on its head by a rightwing supreme court.
That is why I have introduced a resolution in the Senate (introduced by Representative Ted Deutch in the House) calling for an amendment to the US Constitution that says simply and straightforwardly what everyone - except five members of the United States supreme court - understands:
Corporations are not people with constitutional rights equal to, flesh-and-blood, human beings. Corporations are subject to regulation by the people. Corporations may not make campaign contributions - the law of the land for the last century - or dump unlimited sums of money into our elections. Congress and states have broad power to regulate all election spending.
I did not introduce this lightly. In fact, I have never sought to amend the Constitution before. The US Constitution is an extraordinary document that, in my view, should not be amended often. In light of the supreme court's Citizens United decision, however, I see no alternative. The ruling has radically changed the nature of our democracy. It has further tilted the balance of power toward the rich and the powerful, at a time, when the wealthiest people in this country have never had it so good.
At a time when corporations have more than $2tn in cash in their bank accounts, make record-breaking profits and swarm Washington with their lobbyists 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for the highest court in the land to suggest that there is just not enough corporate "speech" in our system, defies the bounds of reason and sanity. The ruling already has led to plans, for example, by industrialist brothers David and Charles Koch to steer more than $200m - potentially much more - to conservative groups ahead of election day 2012. Karl Rove has similar designs.
Does anybody really believe that that is what American democracy is supposed to be about?
I believe that the Citizens United decision will go down as one of the worst in our country's history - and one that demands an amendment to our Constitution in order to restore sovereign power to the people, as our nation's founders intended.
~~~
Biden Advised Against the Bin Laden Raid
The VP provides the most detailed account yet, of Obama's decision-making process.
| Posted Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012.
Speaking at a retreat for House Democrats this past weekend, Joe Biden told a dramatic tale of President Obama's decision to approve the raid that ultimately killed Osama Bin Laden, revealing that the vice president -- and to a lesser extent many of Obama's other top advisers -- thought the raid was too risky.
"[Obama] went around the table with all the senior people, including the chiefs of staff, and he said, 'I have to make a decision. What is your opinion?'" Biden told lawmakers, according to the New York Times, which confirmed the vice president's account with the White House. "Every single person in that room hedged their bet except Leon Panetta. Leon said go. Everyone else said, 49, 51."
When Obama asked the VP for his opinion, Biden said he responded: "'You know, I didn’t know we had so many economists around the table.' I said, 'We owe the man a direct answer. Mr. President, my suggestion is, don’t go. We have to do two more things to see if he’s there.'"
Then, Obama stood up and, as he left the room, he said "I’ll give you my decision." The next morning, he gave the "Go" order, according to Biden.
The second-hand account of how things played out in the White House Situation Room provides a fascinating peek inside the president's decision-making process -- and also allows Biden to use his unique way of telling stories to try to boost Obama's reputation as a strong leader. Because sometimes you need to tell as well as show, Biden added, in reference to his boss: "This guy's got a backbone like a ramrod."
~~~
GOOD NEWS!!
JOB GROWTH BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Here's a surprise for those who thought the Trump endorsement (for Romney, that is) was the best news Obama's re-election campaign would get all week: job growth for January has brought the unemployment rate down to its lowest in nearly three years.
According to new data released Friday by the Labor Department, the unemployment rate fell from 8.5 to 8.3 percent after job growth for last month outpaced expectations. Payrolls increased by 243,000, substantially more than the roughly 150,000 jobs and steady unemployment rate estimated by Wall Street.
The Associated Press spots some more good news: the increase in jobs for January is spread across many different sectors, with manufacturing and construction, two struggling industries, adding 50,000 and 21,000 jobs, respectively. Meanwhile, professional and business services (encompassing many of the higher paying jobs out there), added 70,000 jobs; retail gained 11,000, and leisure and hospitality added 44,000 jobs.
If the trend in hiring continues it means that the unemployment rate will drop below 7.8 percent within a few months, which is where it was when President Obama took office. “At that point, it will be tough for Mitt Romney to stand up and say the president’s policies have made the recession worse,” writes John Cassidy in The New Yorker. “And it will be impossible for Republicans to deny that things are getting better.”
We've officially had 23 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, and seen 3.7 million private-sector jobs created under this President. The important point is the TREND. The fact that unemployment is still at 8.3% is not good, however.
Despite this good news, unemployment is still a real big and important problem. Also, there are some predictions that unemployment may rise again to 9% before November. Unemployment is going to be the biggest problem facing the Obama administration between now and November.
~~~
AMERICA'S JOB DEFICIT AND WHY IT'S STILL MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE BUDGET DEFICIT.
, “When they’re not blaming Obama for a bad economy, Republicans are decrying the federal budget deficit and demanding more cuts.
RoberReich
Published: Saturday 4 February 2012
President Obama’s only chance for rebutting Republican claims that he’s responsible for a bad economy is to point to a positive trend. Voters respond to economic trends as much as they respond to absolute levels of economic activity. Under ordinary circumstances January’s unemployment rate of 8.3 percent would be terrible. But compared to September’s 9.1 percent, it looks quite good. And the trend line – 9 percent in October, 8.6 percent in November, 8.5 percent in December, and now 8.3 percent – is enough to make Democrats gleeful.
The most significant aspect of January’s jobs report is political. The fact that America ’s labor market continues to improve is good news for the White House. But as a practical matter the improvement is less significant for the American work force
President Obama’s only chance for rebutting Republican claims that he’s responsible for a bad economy is to point to a positive trend. Voters respond to economic trends as much as they respond to absolute levels of economic activity. Under ordinary circumstances, January’s unemployment rate of 8.3 percent would be terrible. But compared to September’s 9.1 percent, it looks quite good. And the trend line – 9 percent in October, 8.6 percent in November, 8.5 percent in December, and now 8.3 percent – is enough to make Democrats gleeful.
But the U.S. labor market is far from healthy. America ’s job deficit is still mammoth. Our working-age population has grown by nearly 10 million since the recession officially began in December 2007 but many of these people never entered the workforce. Millions of others are still too discouraged to look for work.
The most direct way of measuring the jobs deficit is to look at the share of the working-age population in jobs. Before the recession, 63.3 percent of working-age Americans had jobs. That employment-to-population ratio reached a low last summer of 58.2 percent. Now it’s 58.5 percent. That’s better than it was, but not by much. The trend line here isn’t quite as encouraging.
Given how many people have lost their jobs and how much larger the total working-age population is, we have a long road ahead. At January’s rate of job gains – 243,000 – the nation wouldn’t return to full employment for another seven years.
When they’re not blaming Obama for a bad economy, Republicans are decrying the federal budget deficit and demanding more cuts. But, America ’s jobs deficit continues to be a much larger problem than the budget deficit.
In fact, we can’t possibly achieve the growth needed to reduce the budget deficit as a proportion of the total economy unless far more people are employed. Workers are consumers, and consumer spending is 70 percent of economic activity. And, cutting the budget means fewer workers, directly (as government continues to shed workers) and indirectly (as government contractors have to lay off workers) and therefore, fewer consumers.
Yet deficit hawks continue to circle. State and local budgets are still being slashed. The federal government is scheduled to begin major spending cuts less than a year from now. Republicans are calling for more cuts in the short term. Austerity economics continues to gain traction.
Meanwhile Congress is debating whether to renew extended unemployment benefits. This should be a no-brainer. The long-term unemployed, who have been jobless for more than six months, comprise a growing share of the unemployed, (In January, they rose from 42.5 percent to 42.9 percent).
Republicans say unemployment benefits are prolonging unemployment, that people won’t get jobs if they get unemployment checks from the government. That’s claptrap, especially when there’s only 1 job opening for every 4 people who need a job. Also, Republicans say we can’t afford to extend jobless benefits, untrue. Jobless workers spend whatever money they get, and their spending keeps other people in jobs.
Government should extend unemployment benefits, and not cut spending until the nation’s rate of unemployment is down to 5 percent. Then, and only then, should we move toward budget austerity.
The job situation is better than it was, but it’s still AWFUL. The jobs deficit is still our number one economic problem. Forget the budget deficit until we tame the jobs deficit.
~~~
PARTING THOUGHT
No age or time of life, no position or circumstance, has a monopoly on success. Any age is the right age to start doing !
Gerard
~~~
If the good Lord is willing and the creek don't rise I'll talk with you again on Feb. 28, 2012. In addition, I will be posting a "Contemplating Life" essay on Feb. 21, 2012.
No comments:
Post a Comment